I have been going to the ICv2 Conference at New York Comic Con since its first year. It holds a special place in my heart as the first professional panel I attended after years of seeing fan panels. At last, a real moderator, good information, and a Q&A session with real questions—not speculation from fans, but facts from industry, librarians, and press!

In the past, the ICv2 Conference has been a parade of positivity: “sales of graphic novels are up! Way up! Especially manga!” The 2008 conference was a little more cautious, with the graphic novel growth curves leveling out, but still strong. This year I expected doom and gloom, but for the most part, the panels were upbeat.

In short: manga has taken a hit, with a 17% drop in sales. The number of volumes released has dropped back down to a 2005-2006 level. Borders’ and Barnes and Noble’s restructuring and closing stores play a big part in this number, and Diamond has been dropping the poorest-selling titles and series from its backlist.

Overall, graphic novels as a category saw 5% growth. Sales of Watchmen and the Dark Knight are certainly part of this, but the brightest spot in the overall market seems to be children’s graphic novels, which saw a 134% jump in the number of titles released between 2007 and 2008.

In this column, I hope to give an overview of the most interesting quotes I pulled from the conference.

ICv2 Graphic Novel Survey Report and White Paper
Presented by Milton Griepp – President, ICv2

I usually enjoy the White Paper Panel the best out of all the ICv2 presentations. It’s just cut and dry facts about the industry, complete with graphs, tables and charts, unmarred by opinion or speculation.

The size of the 2008 overall graphic novel market was $395 million, up 5% from 2007. but this was the slowest growth rate since 2001 (when it was only worth $75 million). Manga was down 9%, from 1513 titles (individual volumes) in 2007 to 1372 titles in 2008. Other categories also saw a drop, with the exception of Kids & Tweens comics which jumped up 134%, and Sci Fi grew 6%. Overall, the growth curves are flattening.

Of the 98,000 titles Diamond is dropping from its backlist, 43% are manga. Manga make up 44% of all graphic novel sales, according to ICv2. (Superhero/traditional comics make up about 33% of the market.)

Most graphic novels are sold in bookstores – a 2 to 1 ratio, bookstores to comic stores. There were $35 million in sales to libraries in 2008. 2008 saw solid growth in libraries. Internal circulation is important for manga, where the titles are so short they can be read without leaving the library—but how is internal circulation tracked? Library traffic is expected to increase in 2009, because of the economy.

Manga sales are down overall 17%, and bookstores are down more than comic stores. Manga has fallen back to 2005 levels. Anime is less visible on Cartoon Network and Adult Swim. The Borders Group faced drastic changes and many Waldenbooks closed. Times are rougher for small publishers, as we saw Broccoli and DramaQueen depart. Medium-sized publishers are diversifying with non-manga, as concentration trends continue.

Naruto is catching up to its release schedule in Japan. Viz is continuing to flood the marketplace with Naruto, crowding out others. Our Naruto Nation Redux continues to pick up new readers with volume one and also with the beginning of Shippuden.

For the first time ever, ICv2 surveyed 600 retailers and librarians and presented the results. Twice as many comic retailers responded as libraries, and all but six of the responding libraries were public and not academic.

The most interesting statistics to come out of the survey were retailer plans for 2009. 34% of respondents said that they planned to increase space in their stores devoted to manga. 42% said they would keep the same amount of space. Almost none of the respondents planned on reducing space in their stores.

75% of librarians said graphic novel circulation was up in 2008. 40% of librarians plan to devote about the same amount of space in the library to graphic novels in 2009, and around 55% planned to increase that space.

“We found lots of optimism among retailers and librarians.” Griepp wasn’t expecting this; he thought people would say sales were going to crash. He drew some comparisons to the early ’80s, which were bad economic times. People were not buying, there was inflation and “a sense of malaise” according to President Carter. In those days the newsstand distribution was collapsing and comic stores were taking off. “In tough times that impetus towards change… is accelerated,” Griepp said. “This is an extinction level event, but in any extinction level event you have dinosaurs and mammals.”

Amazon is one of the fastest growing distribution channels. Online is doing better than brick and mortar stores in general. Griepp still believes in comic stores. Referring to Diamond’s recent increase in minimum orders for Previews, Griepp said, “I think there will be an effect, and they will look for distribution in other channels,” meaning online distribution and graphic novels. “Good material will find a way to reach the market,” Griepp said.

Graphic Novel Industry Summit
Robin Brenner – Teen Librarian, Brookline Public Library, No Flying No Tights Blog
Dan Buckley – Pres. and Pub. of Marvel Enterprises Inc.
Liza Coppola – Sr. VP Corp. Relationships & Partnerships, Viz Media
James Killen – Buyer, B&N
Chris Powell – General Manager of Lone Star Comics / mycomicshop.com
Bill Schanes – VP of Purchasing, Diamond Comic Distributors, Inc.
Milton Griepp, Moderator – President, ICv2

“Business is up!” Robin Brenner said of her Boston public library. “The more I add to my adult collection the more it goes up. There’s a huge need for children’s graphic novels. We need more and more and more of them. But I think library budgets, like everyone else’s, are going to get cut.” Brenner added, “…the need for reviews will go up. Most librarians need a positive review in a library journal to purchase a book.”

According to James Killen (Barnes & Noble), foot traffic is down and retail is down. High gas prices and then the economic bubble bursting drove down traffic. “The consumer becomes a little more cautious. The sales are down, but still there.”

Chris Powell said his sales are still up, especially online to parts of the country not serviced by comic stores or bookstores. There are tighter margins, but still some growth. “We were carrying some of every book, but lately we’ve been more selective,” Powell said. “[We're] aggressive in special orders, but careful about what goes to the shelf.”

Griepp asked the panelist about content. In these hard times, are people looking for happier stories? Watchmen is selling well, but that’s as dark as it gets.

Powell replied that webcomics like Penny Arcade that have proven themselves online are seeing print. “The low hanging fruit… is an established fanbase,” Powell was quick to point out, like the Anita Blake and Dean Koontz stuff, which need a minimum of advertising.

Liza Coppola of Viz described her “bipolar publishing” with both Naruto and their new sci-fi line, Haikasoru.

“We caught a lot zeitgeist with Civil War and government cynicism,” Dan Buckley (Marvel) said. “I don’t think I could’ve gotten the same reaction if I put George Bush on cover two years ago than with the Spiderman Obama cover”.

“I have no shelf-sitters (books),” Brenner said. “Western comic readers are more likely to read manga and visa versa. The divide isn’t as strict as it was. I have some aging teen girls looking for older stuff—they read by genre, mystery, romance, etc. Twilight hit two genre—supernatural romance. Boys read it and are puzzled. They read it to find out what girls like.” Brenner continued, “Good readers read everything—they read books, they read magazines, they read online. It’s not like they choose one.”

Killen said, “I think consumers are going to buy what they want to buy… it’s that extra book they’re going to think twice about.”

“Graphic novels over $24.95 aren’t selling as well,” Powell said. “The ones that do have some added value, or very high production values.” Powell thinks how it looks and how it feels is more important. If he has to decide between three paperbacks or two nice hardcovers, he’ll go with the hardcovers.

The audience was interested in hearing Schanes’ comment on the new Diamond minimum order. “For those that were affected it was a very negative phone call to make,” Schanes said. “We may get more of a lift from the uncluttered field.”

Mikhail Koulikov from Anime News Network asked the panelists to talk about the collector market.

“Sure, we think about that,” Coppola said. “We sold that giant collector’s box set [of Naruto], and they sold out. I don’t think most kids read it and dispose of it; I think they pass it out to a friend.”

Powell looks on a store-by-store basis for readers and collectors—in particular for variant covers. “We love collectors because they buy more than one of the same book, ” Powell said.

“Libraries service readers, but they are in some ways the ultimate collectors,” Brenner said, citing her library’s purchase of the giant editions of Sandman. “If you don’t feel your library carries enough graphic novels, tell them. Tell the director, tell the board of trustees.”