With this weekend’s release of Spider-Man 3, Hollywood’s summer season kicks into high gear as the three most likely contenders for 2007 Box Office Champ all come out within three weeks of each other: Spider-Man 3, Shrek the Third, and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End. Their six predecessors have raked in more than $2.2 billion combined at the domestic box office alone, and each sequel is expected to again break the $300m barrier this summer.

But which will come out on top, and which will disappoint?

Spider-Man 3 (May 4)
Arguably the best-known of the three contenders, it has the advantage of getting out of the gate first, and its 4,252 theaters (10,000+ screens) pretty much guarantees a record-breaking opening weekend. It also has its second weekend pretty much to itself as its only relevant “competition” will be the horror sequel, 28 Weeks Later. The big question is whether or not it will have strong enough legs to stay in the box office race once the competition really heats up the following two weeks, with the back-to-back releases of Shrek the Third, and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End. Despite the massive hype surrounding it, comic book-based movie franchises have been known to tank with their third installments and advance reviews have been somewhat mixed, including mine.

Shrek the Third (May 18)
The first Shrek was a surprise hit as a studio other than Pixar finally cracked the all-ages CGI nut, and its follow-up, Shrek 2, currently ranks behind only Titanic and Star Wars as the highest-grossing domestic release ever, surpassing the first installment by more than $170m! Last year, Cars, Happy Feet and Ice Age: The Meltdown all proved that there’s still plenty of life left in the family-friendly CGI category, and with Spider-Man 3 taking a noticeably darker turn, that may keep some of the web-slinger’s younger fans from being allowed to see it. With Memorial Day weekend certain to provide a boost in its second frame, Shrek the Third is perfectly positioned to come much closer to matching the box office of its predecessor than its originator.

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (May 25)
Like Captain Jack Sparrow himself, the Pirates sequel is this summer’s wild card, and like Shrek 2, Dead Man’s Chest impressively outgrossed its predecessor last summer, ultimately landing it very comfortably ahead of the first Spider-Man on the All-Time list at #6. The Matrix-like quick turnaround could go either way, though, as audiences may have been turned off by last summer’s cliffhanger ending and the sense that they’re paying twice to see what should have been pulled into one movie might have them waiting for the DVD. More likely, however, is that Pirates benefits from combining the action and adventure of Spider-Man 3 with the humor of Shrek the Third, and takes advantage of the extended holiday weekend to break the opening day and opening weekend records Dead Man’s Chest set last summer.

Predictions
Of the three contenders, Spider-Man 3 is the only one whose second installment made less money than its predecessor, and while that $373m is enough for it to still be on the Top 10 All-Time List — albeit barely, at #10 — it’s well behind Shrek 2 and Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest. With no major competitive release coming for at least two weeks after Pirates, Spider-Man’s fate will be pretty clear after Memorial Day weekend ends, while the other two should both have enough legs left to survive the likes of Ocean Thirteen, Surf’s Up and Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer. Assuming word of mouth for each isn’t completely out-of-whack with their respective expectations (which I’m actually not assuming for Spider-Man 3), my predictions are:

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End: $385m
Shrek the Third: $350m
Spider-Man 3: $285m

What do you think? And which movie are you most anticipating seeing this summer?

UPDATE: Its record-breaking $151m on opening weekend means Spider-Man 3 will have to pull off a Hulk-like tanking in order to match my $285m prediction.

Figure it should be around $250m by next Monday, so if things work out the way I see them going down — I still don’t think it has the legs to stand up to Shrek and Pirates, though it should be able to creep past $300m, topping out at $315m or so? — it’s going to have made approx. 50% of its total take on opening weekend and be considered another “disappointing hit”, a la Superman Returns, as most industry expectations seem to have it pegged at around $350m domestic, if not higher.

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