The gun that signals the first round in the next generation war has already been fired. Launching the Xbox 360 in November, Microsoft has enjoyed a head start on the competition. Considering the enormous amount of mindshare Sony currently has in the console race, many expect the Xbox 360 to have little hope taking the top spot despite the one year lead time. Still, is the situation really that bleak? Is the Playstation 3 launch this November really going to spell doom for the Xbox 360? We’re going to look at a few reasons why Microsoft and their Xbox 360 may be sitting in a much rosier position than many give them credit for.
We know the PS3 will launch worldwide in November. According to Sony, that launch will see one million units put into the retail channel. One million units worldwide is not a big number. Everyone has seen the effects of a worldwide launch and how long it can take to get units in numbers that match demand. Microsoft still hasn’t fully gotten up to speed with Xbox 360 shipments yet and with all the new technology being put into the PS3 such as Blu-Ray and Cell, consumers shouldn’t expect for things to be any easier from the Sony camp. Meanwhile, Microsoft will certainly have quantity up to par this Holiday season with Wistron, one of their three manufacturing partners, even promising to be able to produce one million Xbox 360s per month by the end of the year. Still, having Xbox 360s in retail during a PS3 shortage alone won’t be enough. What’s needed are the games and this is an area in which Microsoft, surprisingly, just may have the upper hand.
Many people have been criticizing the initial Xbox 360 lineup of games as not “being ‘next-gen’ enough” or “not being the quantum leap they’ve been expecting.” Naturally, the secrecy Sony has been keeping on the state of many of its games has had the public expecting that the PS3 will be the system to show graphics that will blow their minds this Holiday season. However, as we get closer to E3, we’re starting to see that some of these titles aren’t as impressive visually as we’ve been lead to believe. As much as we scream about gameplay this, and gameplay that, most consumers that are making the jump to the next generation want to see which platform has the better graphics.
In an interview we conducted with John Carmack recently he mentioned “They are both powerful systems that are going to make excellent game platforms, but I have a bit of a preference for the 360’s symmetric CPU architecture and excellent development tools. The PS3 will have a bit more peak power, but it will be easier to exploit the available power on the 360.”
What’s worse for Sony is that in the situations we’ve seen where a title is for both the PS3 and Xbox 360, they both look the same. After all, we were all blown away at Sony’s E3 conference last year when we saw “Fight Night Round 3” as the most impressive real-time demonstration of PS3 software. Then what happened this year? It was released on Xbox 360 and wasn’t missing a single step. If the multi-platform titles coming out end up looking so similar such as the EA sports lineup, “Rainbow Six: Vegas,” “Brothers In Arms: Highway to Hell” and others, it could take a lot of gas out of that Sony engine.
What we’re likely to see at retail is the following: The PS3 will sell out, there’s no doubt about that. It’ll sell out very quickly and many gamers who’ve been waiting for one will be empty handed. What the average Joe over here in the US is going to see is that even though the PS3 is sold out, Madden Football 2007 is available on Xbox 360 as well as PS3 and looking nearly identical. Outside from that, it’ll be up to the exclusives. This will be tough for Sony as Microsoft will have second generation Xbox 360 titles available. Seriously, when consumers walk into a store-front and they see the likes of “Untold Legends: Dark Kingdom” on PS3, they will notice that it will be lacking graphically compared to “Gears of War”, “Too Human” and other Xbox 360 titles due to see release at the same time. There is a very real threat of PS3 titles at launch not being able to catch up with Xbox 360 offerings graphically. Combine the fact that PS3s will be in short supply with plentiful 360s on shelves, multi-platform titles that don’t show any visual advantage on PS3 (including the all-mighty and all-selling Madden), and a stable of stellar 360 exclusives that outshine the PS3 launch exclusives then things suddenly don’t look so dire. Microsoft just may be able to pull this off without even having to worry about a price drop.
E3 is literally around the corner now. At the time of this writing, the show is two weeks away, promising to reveal many more pieces to this puzzle. Sony could make us all stand and take notice with playable games that really make us believers. We’ll be there and we’ll soon enough see, but without some major changes to what we’ve seen, Sony may be in for quite the shock this Fall.